IonQ Raised the Bar, But 3 Quantum Rivals Face Tough Questions

Last note from me on this (From The Cycle Code)

Early in November 2026, quantum computing pioneer IonQ Inc. (NYSE: IONQ) set a high bar with a Q3 2026 earnings report that included revenue that more than quadrupled year over year (YOY), further increases to full-year guidance, and a growing pile of contracts and cash reserves to fuel additional growth. In the days that followed, other companies in the industry reported earnings that were more lackluster, including reports from D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NASDAQ: QBTS), Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: QUBT), and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) that all left something to be desired.

The quantum industry shows tremendous technological potential, but the market appetite for these companies has been weakening, as evidenced by a sharp downturn in share prices for many quantum stocks. A long timeline to commercialization, waning enthusiasm for the technology, stubbornly slow revenue growth (or worse, a reversal in revenue performance), and the risk of share dilution are weighing on many of these firms.

D-Wave: Turning Revenue Around, But Not Enough

After a dreary Q2 2026 in which D-Wave's revenue remained essentially flat compared to fast-rising expenses, the company was able to restart its growth for Q3: revenue climbed by 21% year over year, led by strong performance in the company's professional services segment. In absolute terms, though, D-Wave is lagging behind IonQ—the company reported just $4.5 million in net revenues for the quarter, compared to $174 million for IonQ, including $83.5 million from SkyWater foundry services. IonQ is the larger company by market capitalization, but the widening discrepancy here is still notable.

In Q2, D-Wave boasted significant bookings growth, but this was no longer the highlight in Q3. During the latest quarter, bookings were down 19% year over year to $1.9 million, although bookings for the first nine months of 2026 rose 611%. More importantly, though, D-Wave's costs continue to mount, with GAAP operating expenses rising by 84% YOY and adjusted EBITDA losses increasing by 83% over the same period to almost $38 million.

D-Wave's professional services may be critical to driving widespread adoption of its quantum products, but this portion of the business has lower margins, and an increase in revenue from this segment meant lower gross margins for the company, too.

All of this points to a company that has yet to find a sustainable, scalable commercial model. Though the firm has ample cash, it has relied on dilutive measures to continue to fund its growth. Investors unwilling to wait for D-Wave to sort out the next steps in the coming years have largely sold shares, leading to a roughly 60% year-to-date (YTD) drop.

QCi: Impressive Revenue, But Viability Risks Persist

Quantum Computing, known as QCi, is a smaller company—less than half the market cap of D-Wave and about a tenth the size of IonQ—but in some ways its Q3 2026 earnings report was more promising than that of its larger rival. For one, QCi saw record revenue of $9.5 million, up dramatically from revenue of $0.4 million the prior year and nearly $2 million above estimates. Acquired businesses accounted for much of that increase.

QCi's backlog is small but growing, having reached $39 million last quarter, but the firm still faces significant lumpiness in both backlog and realized revenue. For this reason, even though QCi demonstrated impressive top-line growth this quarter, there is no guarantee that this trend will continue.

Still, QCi has a strong reserve of $1.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, enough to fund at least another year of operations. This is helpful, but the company still faces a potentially long and costly path to profitability. The viability risk here may help to explain why QUBT shares receive an overall Hold rating across Wall Street.

Rigetti: Revenue Disappointment and Widening Losses Are Cause for Concern

If there's a single quantum stock that may have disappointed in Q3 earnings the most, Rigetti could be it. Revenue fell by more than a quarter YOY to just $1.4 million, putting the company last among these four companies for quarterly revenue and eliminating any revenue growth momentum that investors may have hoped for.

Lower revenue was accompanied by higher costs, with operating expenses climbing to $34 million and operating losses widening to more than $33 million. This trend would seem difficult to sustain over the long term.

Rigetti's Cepheus-1-108Q processor is achieving important technological milestones and is putting the company in line for even bigger achievements in the coming two years. While this is promising over the long term, it is not enough to fully reverse the company's sizable share price decline in 2026. Shares remain down more than 45% YTD.

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